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16.10.2015
After 20 years of economic reform this article discusses India's long-term growth potential and canvasses some of the challenges that Indian policy makers will need to overcome to realise this potential. This article assesses India's long-term growth potential, briefly surveys some of the challenges that India needs to overcome to realise its potential and finally discusses some implications for Australia. Despite having the world's second largest population, in 1991 the Indian economy was ranked ninth largest in the world.
The robustness of the Indian economy was demonstrated recently during the Global Financial Crisis. Treasury has used the United Nation's long-term population projections and a conditional convergence model to derive the potential long-term economic growth rates for the world's major economies and regions.
One of the key drivers of growth for India is population growth, or more importantly the projected growth of India's working age population.
Chart 2 shows projections of the Indian, Chinese and G7 economies as a proportion of world GDP over the next 40 years.
Based on its stronger demographic fundamentals and on the strong productivity growth flowing from the convergence process, India's potential growth rate could be faster than China's by the end of the current decade. This might not sound like much of a change, but in level terms GDP per capita for India in 2050 is expected to be around where New Zealand or Korea are today. However, it should be noted that these projections are mechanical in nature and rely on demographic projections and assumptions about convergence in rates of productivity between developed and developing economies. India's broad policy challenges centre around the basic factors of production, namely; population, land, and capital.
Based on UN projections, early next decade India is projected to become the world's most populous country, with 1.4 billion people.
To put India's growth into perspective, between now and 2050, India's population is expected to grow by around 485 million people.
This raises some very fundamental issues that will need to be addressed, revolving around food security and employment. The opportunities to improve productivity stem from improved practices in land use and rehabilitation, water efficiency and quality, crop and herd management, the mechanisation of agriculture, and upgrading of the logistical supply chain. To meet India's food needs, the most likely scenario is that there will be some combination of the bolstering of agricultural productivity and rising imports.
Part of the solution to creating these additional jobs lies in education and labour market reform. Unfortunately this higher literacy rate is yet to flow through significantly to labour market participation rates, with India's participation rate comparing unfavourably to China (Chart 5). One reason for the low participation rates and lack of formal job creation is the myriad of labour laws that inhibit market flexibility and act as deterrents to growth in the formal sector. A major reason for this is that manufacturing plants with 100 employees or more require government permission to lay off just one worker. It seems clear that India's outdated labour laws combine with other factors, like uncertainty in property law and other remnant regulations, in holding back growth of the formal sector.
The success of Special Economic Zones, which are relatively less regulated and taxed, and the growth of the IT sector, which is less regulated, are indicators that productivity enhancing reform is possible.
These small holdings make it difficult for the land owners to make a living from solely working their land.
Beyond the agricultural sector, land reform is a key issue in the context of industrial and infrastructure development. As is common in rapidly growing developing economies, the need for enhanced infrastructure in India is overwhelming. The fast growth of the Indian economy and population has meant that increasing stress has been placed on existing infrastructure, such as electricity grids and generation capacity, railways, roads, ports, airports, irrigation, and urban and rural water supply.
There is a general consensus that the lack of infrastructure is holding back India's economic development, particularly in the energy and transport sectors. In the upcoming Five-Year Plan, India's Planning Commission anticipates that average investment of around US$200 billion per year will be required, double the average of the current plan, to sustain India's growth.
Despite these obstacles, one area of tremendous progress has been the Indian telecommunications sector. India is not only the world's largest democracy, it is extremely diverse, encompassing many different ethnic groups, religions, traditions, and people of vastly different economic standing. Of course there are well known problems in India with red tape, corruption and a slow legal system. The Indian Government recognises some of the problems in the taxation system and has plans to reform aspects of it with the Direct Tax Code and the introduction of a goods and services tax. Perhaps a legacy of the old Licence Raj system is India's high level of red tape and bureaucracy. This has an impact on India's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, with India ranking 134 out of 183 economies.
Anecdotally and through a number of reports, it is clear that the problem of corruption remains deeply rooted and may even be worsening in India.19 This poses a significant roadblock to its long-term growth potential.
India is trying to work its way through this sensitive area with the anti-corruption agenda clearly capturing national attention in recent times.
But further work still needs to be done as the World Corruption Perception Index has India behind countries such as China, Thailand and Columbia. Part of the solution to the corruption challenge is having a quick and efficient court system. The problems in the legal system also spill over into the commercial sphere, where issues such as enforceability of contracts and land disputes can act to hinder longer-term investment and consequently development. India's strong growth has already seen Australia's merchandise trade exports to India rise by nearly 800 per cent from 2000 to 2010. The strengthening trade relationship over the last 10 years has been largely the result of the growth in the Indian economy and its demand for resources.
India's growing economy is leading to increased demand for energy commodities, such as natural gas and coal, and mineral commodities like gold and copper ore. India's demand for agricultural commodities and processed food items is generally outstripping its domestic productive capacity.
There are opportunities to improve practices in land use and rehabilitation, water efficiency and quality, crop and herd management, the mechanisation of agriculture, and upgrading the logistical supply chain. India's agricultural sector will probably remain relatively heavily protected due to the political influence and poor economic and social conditions of agricultural workers. India's rising middle class presents opportunities of a different nature.28 As incomes rise and the Indian consumer has exposure to international markets, tastes are changing.
The liberalisation of FDI in India's multi-brand retail sector could be an important force in helping to transform India's food sector — potentially boosting investment in the cold storage and supply chain, lifting agricultural productivity and incomes, and helping to alleviate food price inflation.
As noted earlier, India has set itself ambitious targets for infrastructure with the next Five-Year Plan expected to contain total infrastructure spending of US$1 trillion. There are Australian companies on the infrastructure financing side and on the construction and project management side supporting these efforts. India is actively seeking to modernise its PPP frameworks and attract foreign capital and know-how.
Currently around 11 million Indian students are pursuing higher education — but this represents just 11 per cent of the nation's 17-23 year olds. The opportunities for Australian universities, whether in terms of partnering with Indian institutions during this growth phase or attracting more Indian international students to Australia are clear.
In terms of vocational education and training, the scope of opportunity is also impressive.
The challenge for India is enormous and India recognises that it cannot achieve these goals alone. India was the eleventh largest source of tourist arrivals in 2009, while China was fourth largest.


This growth in outbound Indian tourism will occur against a backdrop of increased competition among potential tourist destinations. But India's policy makers must continue the reform process if India is to harness all of its growth drivers and achieve its enormous potential.
The rise of the middle-class in India will open up many new opportunities for Australia, but our success is not pre-ordained.
Acemoglu, D, 2009, Introduction to Economic Growth, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey. Cagliarini, A, and Rush, A 2011, Economic Development and Agriculture in India, Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, June quarter 2011. Government of India, Planning Commission Eleventh Five Year Plan 2007-2012, New Delhi, 2007. Government of India, Planning Commission Mid-Term Appraisal for Eleventh Five Year Plan 2007-2012, New Delhi, July 2010.
Kharas, H, 2010, The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, OECD Development Centre, OECD Publishing. National Sample Survey Organisation 2006, Livestock Ownership Across Operational Land Holding Classes in India 2002-03, NSS Report No. Rodrik, D, 2011, The Future of Convergence, Harvard University, paper prepared for the 2011 Jackson Hole Symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 25-27 August, 2011.
1 Ben Ralston, Wilson Au-Yeung and Bill Brummitt are from International & G20 Division of Macroeconomic Group within Treasury. 2 This article is based on a speech that was presented by Bill Brummitt to the Australian National University's India Business and Economic Update on 19 September 2011. 4 Chakrabarty (2011) and Cagliarini and Rush (2011) provide further discussion on trends in agricultural productivity in India.
13 For example, the delays experienced by steel group Posco in the state of Orissa or Tata's Nano car plant in West Bengal. 15 See IMF (2011) Annexe note on Infrastructure Finance Indian Challenges and Country Experiences for a more detailed discussion on the roadblocks identified above, cross-country experiences and lessons for India. 19 For example the 2G scandal is estimated by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India to have cost USD$39 billion in lost revenue.
20 Corruption Perception Index scores relate to the perception of the degree of corruption as seen by business people, academics and country analysts - scores range between 10 (highly clean) and 0 (highly corrupt). 23 A broader discussion on Asia's emergence and the implications of an increase in its middle-class will affect Australia is contained in Budget Statement No. 27 Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's address to the 83rd foundation day of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, 16 July 2011. Kim SavageMember - Audit CommitteeProfession: Retired, Student Affairs Assessment Program Coordinator, Asst. These reforms have done much to unlock India's economic potential and the Australia-India bilateral economic relationship continues to blossom. On 24 July 1991, Manmohan Singh, then India's Finance Minister and now Prime Minister, embarked on a series of reforms that helped liberalise the Indian economy. They were instrumental in catalysing the transformation of the Indian economy that is continuing today.
Economic growth in India slowed to around 6 per cent through the year (tty) in late 2008 and early 2009, then quickly recovered. The proportion of people of working age in India is expected to increase steadily until about the middle of the 2040s and reach a peak at around 67 per cent (Chart 1).
The change in the composition of India's population has been called the ‘demographic dividend'.
History has shown that simply having the potential to grow at higher rates does not necessarily mean that higher rates will be achieved. The extent to which the potential is realised, or exceeded, depends on the policies that India adopts. Beyond the factors of production, productivity is the key determinant to long-run growth prospects, therefore some institutional factors are also briefly discussed. Similar contrasts in yields have also been observed in the case of wheat, cereals and vegetables. In meeting these challenges the balance between reform and equity will continue to pose deep political challenges for Indian governments.
There is also the plethora of state and federal laws that combine to make the system quite complex.
This restriction is seeing an increase in the amount of smaller holdings of land as land is subdivided between siblings over successive generations. In addition, with such small holdings capital investment is difficult, which inhibits productivity growth. Land acquisition issues are a factor behind the delays in many projects13, and pressure for reform is building. The Indian Government acknowledges this and in its 11th Five-Year Plan (2007-2012) identified increased infrastructure spending as a priority in achieving India's economic growth. This investment is to be achieved through a combination of public investment and private initiatives, including through Public Private Partnerships (PPP).
Currently there are in excess of 850 million mobile phone subscribers16 as well as a thriving call centre industry. As such there exists a multitude of voices that want to be heard and a myriad of interests that all have stakes in India's economic development. For example, the central government has the ability to tax the final consumption of services, but not goods. However, the Indian experience with tax reform, like Australia's, is not a straightforward one and negotiations are still underway. As a practical example, this same report notes that it takes around 29 days for a business to be registered in India, while the OECD average is 5.6 days. Given the dramatic changes to the Indian economy over the past two decades, there are many areas where the law may not have evolved quickly enough. India is also expected to be a large customer of the $43 billion Gorgon gas project in Western Australia.
Earlier this year Rio Tinto received a social awareness award from the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries for its efforts. A freeing up of restrictions in the mining sector would be a significant boost for the Indian economy. Australia itself has substantial resource deposits and Indian investment in our resource and energy sector is growing strongly. Increasingly India is looking to global supply chains to fill the gaps, which will boost trade flows.
These opportunities should be attractive to Australian agribusiness, environmental and logistics firms.
The new opportunities can be seasonal and temporary as imports may only be allowed when there is a domestic shortage of production. This translates into growth in demand for protein, imported processed foods, wine and the like. But construction activity, and participation by the private sector, is really only just now ramping up.
Again the opportunities and possible collaboration are significant, if the domestic policy settings and investment climate can be made more conducive. The level of unmet demand for university places runs at around 4.7 million places each year.
The Australian Government has identified opportunities to increase the delivery of Australian vocational education and training (VET) qualifications in India.


How well Australia does in capturing this market will depend greatly on the skill and creativity of Australian tourism providers.
Continued reforms to drive our competitiveness and a determined effort to better understand the Indian market will be essential. This article has benefited as a result of comments and input from Matt Crooke, David Lowe and Nghi Luu. India has also become an important member of fora, including the G20 and the East Asia Summit, and Australia works actively with India in these contexts. To ensure that these additional people can be fed, India's domestic agricultural productivity has to improve dramatically or a far greater share of food will need to be imported. India's vibrant services sector will have to continue to grow and large scale manufacturing will have to expand.
This unifying force and inclusive decision process is an important asset given the dramatic social changes that India has undergone and will need to undergo in the future.
It would also provide international companies, with the proven expertise and equipment to develop such deposits, a significant opportunity. For example, there has been heavy investment by Indian companies in Queensland's Galilee Basin coal fields and Adani Group has acquired from the Queensland Government a 99-year lease of the Abbot Point Coal Terminal north of Bowen. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of The Treasury. THESE VERY SAME ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES, WHO HAVE SWORN TO PROTECT AND SERVE, OUR COUNTRY, AND CITIZENS ,ARE BUT SOME, OF THE CORRUPT,GREEDY TRAITORS .ENGAGED IN THE TYRANNY AND TORTURE.
The school district has moved to a biometric identification program, saying students will no longer have to use an ID card to buy lunch.A  BIOMETRICS TO TRACK YOUR KIDS!!!!!i»?i»?A TARGETED INDIVIDUALS, THE GREEDY CRIMINALS ARE NOW CONDONING THEIR TECH! Paul Weindling, history of medicine professor at Oxford Brookes University, describes his search for the lost victims of Nazi experiments. The chairman of the board at ESL a€” then proprietor of the desert wasteland in Nevada known as a€?Area 51a€? a€” was William Perry, who would be appointed secretary of defense several years later. EUCACH.ORG PanelIn a 2-hour wide-ranging Panel with Alfred Lambremont Webre on the Transhumanist Agenda, Magnus Olsson, Dr. Henning Witte, and Melanie Vritschan, three experts from the European Coalition Against Covert Harassment, revealed recent technological advances in human robotization and nano implant technologies, and an acceleration of what Melanie Vritschan characterized as a a€?global enslavement programa€?.Shift from electromagnetic to scalar wavesThese technologies have now shifted from electromagnetic wave to scalar waves and use super quantum computers in the quantum cloud to control a€?pipesa€? a reference to the brains of humans that have been taken over via DNA, via implants that can be breathed can breach the blood-brain barrier and then controlled via scalar waved on a super-grid.
Eventually, such 'subvocal speech' systems could be used in spacesuits, in noisy places like airport towers to capture air-traffic controller commands, or even in traditional voice-recognition programs to increase accuracy, according to NASA scientists."What is analyzed is silent, or sub auditory, speech, such as when a person silently reads or talks to himself," said Chuck Jorgensen, a scientist whose team is developing silent, subvocal speech recognition at NASA Ames Research Center in California's Silicon Valley.
We numbered the columns and rows, and we could identify each letter with a pair of single-digit numbers," Jorgensen said.
People in noisy conditions could use the system when privacy is needed, such as during telephone conversations on buses or trains, according to scientists."An expanded muscle-control system could help injured astronauts control machines. If an astronaut is suffering from muscle weakness due to a long stint in microgravity, the astronaut could send signals to software that would assist with landings on Mars or the Earth, for example," Jorgensen explained. These are processed to remove noise, and then we process them to see useful parts of the signals to show one word from another," Jorgensen said.After the signals are amplified, computer software 'reads' the signals to recognize each word and sound. Our Research and Development Division has been in contact with the Federal Bureau of Prisons, the California Department of Corrections, the Texas Department of Public Safety, and the Massachusetts Department of Correction to run limited trials of the 2020 neural chip implant.
We have established representatives of our interests in both management and institutional level positions within these departments. Federal regulations do not yet permit testing of implants on prisoners, but we have entered nto contractual agreements with privatized health care professionals and specified correctional personnel to do limited testing of our products.
We need, however, to expand our testing to research how effective the 2020 neural chip implant performs in those identified as the most aggressive in our society. In California, several prisoners were identified as members of the security threat group, EME, or Mexican Mafia. They were brought to the health services unit at Pelican Bay and tranquilized with advanced sedatives developed by our Cambridge,Massachussetts laboratories. The results of implants on 8 prisoners yielded the following results: a€?Implants served as surveillance monitoring device for threat group activity.
However, during that period substantial data was gathered by our research and development team which suggests that the implants exceed expected results. One of the major concerns of Security and the R & D team was that the test subject would discover the chemial imbalance during the initial adjustment period and the test would have to be scurbbed.
However, due to advanced technological developments in the sedatives administered, the 48 hour adjustment period can be attributed t prescription medication given to the test subjects after the implant procedure.
One of the concerns raised by R & D was the cause of the bleeding and how to eliminate that problem.
Unexplained bleeding might cause the subject to inquire further about his "routine" visit to the infirmary or health care facility.
Security officials now know several strategies employed by the EME that facilitate the transmission of illegal drugs and weapons into their correctional facilities. One intelligence officier remarked that while they cannot use the informaiton that have in a court of law that they now know who to watch and what outside "connections" they have.
The prison at Soledad is now considering transferring three subjects to Vacaville wher we have ongoing implant reserach. Our technicians have promised that they can do three 2020 neural chip implants in less than an hour.
Soledad officials hope to collect information from the trio to bring a 14 month investigation into drug trafficking by correctional officers to a close. Essentially, the implants make the unsuspecting prisoner a walking-talking recorder of every event he comes into contact with.
There are only five intelligence officers and the Commisoner of Corrections who actually know the full scope of the implant testing. In Massachusetts, the Department of Corrections has already entered into high level discussion about releasing certain offenders to the community with the 2020 neural chip implants.
Our people are not altogether against the idea, however, attorneys for Intelli-Connection have advised against implant technology outside strick control settings. While we have a strong lobby in the Congress and various state legislatures favoring our product, we must proceed with the utmost caution on uncontrolled use of the 2020 neural chip. If the chip were discovered in use not authorized by law and the procedure traced to us we could not endure for long the resulting publicity and liability payments.
Massachusetts officials have developed an intelligence branch from their Fugitive Task Force Squad that would do limited test runs under tight controls with the pre-release subjects. Correctons officials have dubbed these poetnetial test subjects "the insurance group." (the name derives from the concept that the 2020 implant insures compliance with the law and allows officials to detect misconduct or violations without question) A retired police detective from Charlestown, Massachusetts, now with the intelligence unit has asked us to consider using the 2020 neural chip on hard core felons suspected of bank and armored car robbery.
He stated, "Charlestown would never be the same, we'd finally know what was happening before they knew what was happening." We will continue to explore community uses of the 2020 chip, but our company rep will be attached to all law enforcement operations with an extraction crrew that can be on-site in 2 hours from anywhere at anytime. We have an Intelli-Connection discussion group who is meeting with the Director of Security at Florence, Colorado's federal super maximum security unit. The initial discussions with the Director have been promising and we hope to have an R & D unit at this important facilitly within the next six months. Napolitano insisted that the department was not planning on engaging in any form of ideological profiling. I will tell him face-to-face that we honor veterans at DHS and employ thousands across the department, up to and including the Deputy Secretary," Ms.
Steve Buyer of Indiana, the ranking Republican on the House Committee on Veterans' Affairs, called it "inconceivable" that the Obama administration would categorize veterans as a potential threat.



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