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admin | Category: What Causes Ed 2016 | 25.12.2013
Nobody really grows up saying, ‘I want to be a real estate agent,’” said Fanny Montalvo, managing director of sales at residential brokerage A.C. This, of course, has been one of the central narratives of the real estate boom-and-bust: the surge of inexperienced agents profiting off quick-selling properties, followed by a reorganization of the industry that flushed out newer and less-skilled agents. This month, The Real Deal took a closer look at this oft-repeated truism, examining the state of New York City’s real estate labor force. Data shows that during the downturn, the number of agents (technically called salespeople, agents are the lowest rung on the real estate sales ladder) fell sharply. Now, rookies have begun returning to real estate, but this time around, they are having a much harder time making money, while seasoned brokers continue to reap the biggest rewards. And while compensation is more volatile in the real estate business than it is in other industries, employment in the industry fell less during the recession than in New York City as a whole. Overall, the result of the recent boom-and-bust has been that “the rich got richer and the poor got poorer,” said Chris Peters, director of sales at Prudential Douglas Elliman.
There are now some 25,673 licensed real estate professionals in New York City, according to figures from the New York State Department of State, which handles licensing.
To become a licensed real estate salesperson in New York State, individuals must take a 75-hour training course. A broker’s license is required to open a brokerage, and it can also communicate prestige or knowledge, but it doesn’t entitle someone to a higher commission split or more earnings than a salesperson. In recent years, the number of agents has fluctuated far more wildly than the number of brokers, suggesting that brokers hung on to their positions in the real estate business, while agents fled the industry. During the financial crisis, the number of agents plummeted, falling nearly 30 percent from 16,928 in 2007 to 11,947 in 2009.
In comparison, the number of brokers fell only 3.2 percent between 2007 and 2009, from 12,715 to 12,309, and has stayed in the same ballpark since. The number of agents has started climbing again, increasing 7.6 percent between 2010 and 2011, though there are still notably fewer than before the crash. And, enrollment at the New York Real Estate Institute in early 2012 was up 12 percent over the same period the previous year, according to the real estate school’s marketing manager, Marina Tokar.
On the residential side, the number of licensed real estate agents and brokers dwarfs the number of transactions occurring. Not only did agents leave the industry, but the ones who stayed made significantly less money than their broker counterparts — and have not bounced back as readily, even in a recovering market. Between May 2007 and May 2010, the most recent figures available, average earnings for brokers in the New York City metropolitan area grew more than 9 percent, from $128,850 to $140,810, according to the U.S.
It’s counterintuitive that anyone’s earnings would increase with the market in a tailspin, but industry experts said because of the hurdles of selling a home during the downturn, clients placed a premium on brokers’ experience and their expertise. Plus, with so many leaving the industry, the remaining brokers benefited from a relative lack of competition. Cathy Taub, an executive vice president at Stribling & Associates, got her associate broker’s license in 2002. Meanwhile, the so-called armchair agents, who were used to selling homes with little effort, floundered in a tougher market, insiders said. The brokerages themselves may be partly to blame for the widening gulf in income between brokers and agents, sources said, as some firms focused on filling desks during the boom, without properly vetting newcomers’ abilities.
On the residential rental side, veterans benefited from enduring relationships with building owners, which gave them the ability to “control the listings,” said Douglas Wagner, executive director of leasing at Bond New York. The real estate industry as a whole accounts for a relatively small slice of New York City’s labor pool, but it can be particularly susceptible to outside economic factors, economists said. As of this past December, 117,500 people worked in real estate in New York City, up from a six-year low of 114,600 in January 2011, according to the federal labor statistics, which count commercial and residential brokers, landlords and others in the tally.
Home purchases can be deferred when economic times get tough, unlike grocery shopping or car repairs. But unlike other professions, a drop in sales doesn’t necessarily spell layoffs in real estate, because most brokers and agents are independent contractors, not employees. New York City real estate has also fared better than real estate nationwide, in terms of sales, prices and its job market. That is partly thanks to the high number of rental transactions in the city, compared to the rest of the country, experts said.
All rights reserved © 2016 The Real Deal is a registered Trademark of Korangy Publishing Inc. We recently read that a rare first edition of Charles Darwin’s Insectivorous Plants book was returned to the Camden Library in Sydney, Australia, after 122 years! Aside from the election debates, Friday’s alarming failure of Bloomberg’s global financial trading and data network.

All eyes on Greece as the clock ticks down to the key Euro group meeting on the 24th April. Talking of survival of the fittest, the New York Fed, the US central bank’s main markets facing operation completed its assessment of last October’s ‘flash crash’ in the US Treasury market describing it as one in a 1.6 billion year event!
In the UK, March BRC retail sales grew by an impressive 3.2% with home sales particularly strong on the back of an active housing market. In Europe, Greece raised the stakes saying that it was going to withhold €2.5bn of payments due to the IMF in May and June if no bail out funding is agreed by the end of April.
Elsewhere in Europe, economic news was more encouraging as Eurozone industrial production grew in February, ahead of expectation while the ECB lending survey for Q1 pointed to a further easing of credit conditions. In the USA, the trend of softer than expected economic data continued with retail sales for March showing growth of 0.9% on the previous month. In China, monthly trade data showed an unexpected 15% drop in exports during March although this may be partly due to currency appreciation and some distortion from the Lunar New Year period. Oil ticked higher after an adviser to the Saudi Oil Minister said that the current low oil price was a ‘temporary, unnatural situation’ and that in the longer run that oil demand should grow annually by at least one million barrels a day.
Finally, talking of Great Britain, it will probably not have escaped your attention ‘Britain’s Got Talent’ has returned to our TV screens.
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The two teams compete in there second competition, which is "survival of the fittest" when they are stranded alone in the middle of Kelp Forest, and must depend on one another for survival. Pearl: Well, I was kind of happy that daddy got elimintaed, because he "lent" me his credit card, and I haven't given it back yet.
During the same time period, however, the number of brokers — who have more experience and training than agents — held steady and, in some years, increased. Licensed brokers must have two years of experience as a salesperson or three years of experience in the industry, and take an additional 45 hours of training.
Top residential producers John Burger of Brown Harris Stevens, Carrie Chiang of Corcoran and Raphael De Niro of Prudential Douglas Elliman, for example, are all associate brokers; that means they have the extra training but are not the sponsoring brokers, or brokers of record, for their firms. That’s partially because, as The Real Deal has reported, the industry is now seeing an influx of people who have been laid off from other jobs.
In the last year, employment in the New York City commercial and residential real estate industries has been growing at a modest 1 percent, said Jason Bram, a Manhattan-based senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, citing state labor department figures.
There were 13,815 licensed brokers and agents in Manhattan in 2011, but only 10,161 sales of co-ops and condos in the borough, according to appraisal firm Miller Samuel. Real estate professionals are “not like auto mechanics, where the demand for their services is much more inelastic,” said James Brown, a labor market analyst with the state Department of Labor. Instead, “what happens is real estate brokers get paid less,” the New York Fed’s Bram said.
Not only has the rental market taken off, but rental transactions lend themselves to newbie agents, while experts can fall back on them if they need to, sources said. The late fees were thought to be in the region of ?22,800, but the book was astutely returned during the library’s ‘fine amnesty month’, although one senses that the library was just over the moon to get the first edition back. The survival of the fittest in the animal kingdom reminded us a little bit of global equity markets, particularly when you consider the precarious financial state of Greece.
Concern about the increasing prospect of a Greek default has sent Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield down to a record low of under 0.1%. However, while the exact cause of the sell-off remains unknown, the Fed warned that the rise of computer driven algorithmic trading used by high frequency trading firms could mean that sharp intra-day price movements become more common.
The headline annual inflation rate in March remained at ZERO making an interest rate hike this year increasingly unlikely, with some forecasters suggesting no increase before the end of Q1 2016. This could be a negotiating tactic but underlines just how desperate a state Greek finances are in. Although corporate demand for loans didn’t pick up in Q1, the expected demand for business loans for Q2 reached the highest level since the survey began in 2003. Industrial production contracted slightly again in March with oil and gas drilling activity down by 17%. Chinese GDP growth slowed to 7% in Q1 in line with the official target, nonetheless, the poor export data has raised hopes of more stimulus.

The Brent price spiked a further 6% in a day following a report from the US Energy Information Administration which suggested that May could see a slight dip in US shale oil production.
Despite being likely to get lots of crosses, there is a rumour that SNP Leader, Nicola Sturgeon, is a favourite to appear in the live final, with her magic trick, in which she will endeavour to saw Britain in half! Inferno Titan (Duels of the Planeswalkers 2012 - PS3) - Foil Promo04.Garruk Wildspeaker (Duels of the Planeswalkers - Xbox) *Sj?lden, udsalg, fa tilbage!*05.! It is aimed at athletes and anyone interested in maintaining a healthy diet in a busy lifestyle.
You'll be spending the next few days here, using only your natural surroundings for survival. I was going to say, before rudely interrupted, is just around the corner from the Deep Dark Trench.
That suggests that the industry did indeed see a survival-of-the-fittest purge of less-experienced professionals. While the state does not break down which side of the industry those brokers and agents are on, the vast majority are assumed to be residential. I don’t have to get hired by another employer,’” said Karin Posvar Picket, a senior vice president at the Corcoran Group and 18-year real estate veteran. While those figures don’t include rentals or townhouse sales, it’s clear that many of these new agents cannot be making a living in the business. Average earnings for agents, however, dropped 6 percent during that time, from $84,450 to $79,300.
Economic fluctuations have far more “dramatic” impact for real estate than other industries, he said. Germany and specifically its manufacturing sector has been the long-term economic winner within the EU. Whilst the impact of the failure is difficult to estimate however, on an otherwise gloomy day, stock markets had one of their worst days in 2015. Otherwise, it all seems to be about ‘lower for longer’ on interest rates in the USA and ‘bad news is good news’, with the potential for more stimulus in China following poor exports which in turn boosted mining companies and in turn lifted the FTSE 100 to a new high. The head of the FCA estimates that 30% of business on the UK equity market is high frequency trading driven. Markets seem to be accepting the thoughts of Nick Clegg “no party will win an outright election victory and warned voters that they face a choice between the Lib Dems, the SNP and UKIP over who holds the balance of power”.
The German finance minister said ‘nobody expects that there will be a solution’ and ‘nobody has any idea how we can agree on an even more ambitious programme.
This added to the view that the US Fed will want to see further evidence of a strengthening economy before committing to hiking interest rates.
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Everyone please climb up the ladder that we will drop momentarily, so that you can fly home safely.
Plus, data shows that during the downturn, the earnings gap between agents and brokers widened. Questions have been raised, and again it exposes our vulnerabilities in a “too big to fail” technology age. Without a deal at the meeting of Eurozone financial ministers on May 11th Greece will likely default on a €747m payment to the IMF due on the 12th. All these questions and much more will be answered next week on SpongeBob SquarePants: The Reality Show!
It would appear, that Greece is an injured wildebeest limping along at the back of the Eurozone herd?
Opinions seems pretty divide on the issue, in the most recent poll – 39% of those polled in favour of leaving the EU and 40% wanting to stay in. The head of the IMF has already insisted that there will be no extension to the deadlines for loan repayments to the IMF.
If you’ve ever watched a David Attenborough wildlife documentary, you may already have a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen to the wildebeest?

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