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Atlantic International University: bachelor, master, doctoral degree programs by distance learning, online, correspondence, or home study. Use the controls in the far right panel to increase or decrease the number of terms automatically displayed (or to completely turn that feature off). The fact that carbon dioxide is a 'greenhouse gas' - a gas that prevents a certain amount of heat radiation escaping back to space and thus maintains a generally warm climate on Earth, goes back to an idea that was first conceived, though not specifically with respect to CO2, nearly 200 years ago.
To pick up the scientific trail of what is today known as the Greenhouse Effect, we need to travel back in time to France in the 1820s.
Tyndall's interesting discovery did not completely solve the riddle of the ice ages: that came much later. Another problem raised at the time was that water vapor also absorbs infra-red radiation, and in the available and by modern standards rather low-resolution spectrographs of the time, the absorption bands of the two gases overlapped one another. The post-Second World War period saw a renewed drive to unravel parts of the climate problem, helped by the upsurge in scientific research that accompanied the onset of the Cold War.
At the time, the increase in carbon 12 and carbon 13 was small, reinforcing the idea that the oceans were absorbing much of the added carbon dioxide.
By 1967, the first computer model that simulated the entire planet's climate had been developed by Syukuro Manabe, working in collaboration with Richard Wetherald. There was only one way to find out the answers as to what was really going on: continue the research effort.
The drilling of cores in the Greenland and Antarctic ice-caps had by now become an important branch of research into the climate of the past. Data from the ice-cores were also beginning to demonstrate another aspect of the role of greenhouse gases: feedbacks. Another area of research was the much longer-scale climate changes of the long-distant past.
This finding also answered another geological problem: that of the so-called 'Faint Young Sun Paradox'.
By the start of the twenty-first century, the serious risks associated with the continued tinkering with the planet's thermostat had become all too apparent. The political trench-warfare that has ensued since that time will be familiar to most readers and the more recent climate science of the latest 20th and early 21st centuries has been extensively covered both here at Skeptical Science and at sites such as Realclimate. Spencer Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming gives a very detailed account of the history of climate science with a plethora of references - there are many days' worth of in-depth study there for those who want to go beyond the blogosphere! The article does not mention an important deail: the rock weathering climate "thermostat" is very slow to react. In the third paragraph of the section "1930s: Hulburt and Callendar", the word "slated" is obviously a mistake. I'm sure you've heard this before, but I love the name "Mason" for a guy who studies rocks. Reminds me of back in engineering school when I was doing a project for my failure analysis class, and I was corresponding with a guy via email who was the head of a multinational European research project studying marble cladding on buildings, and in particular why some of the  cladding was cracking and falling apart (due to the marble "bending" from non-uniform thermal expansion and contraction through its thickness), and some not.
I can vouch for the American Institute of Physics (AIP) website for Spencer Weart's essays, especially on the historical aspects of climate science.
Glacial erratic,It is common knowledge that the ice ages in the past were caused by variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun.
GlacialErratic, I agree you should look at the Start Here page, to learn how to quickly and easily find information here on Skeptical Science.The short answer is that the Earth's orbital changes (Milankovich cycles) cause really, really slow variations in the amount of the Sun's radiation that hits the northern hemisphere. Typo alert, "climatologist Hubert Lamb among others, that the uncertainties included a failure to explain previous temperture fluctuations".
The Triangle area is a hotbed of technology companies, including IBM, SAS Institute, Northern Telecom, Glaxo Wellcome, CREE Research, Novartis,Novo-Nordisk, Reichold, Inspire Pharmaceuticals, HAHT Software, and Broadband Technologies. Sixth-highest percentage (5%) of adults with a doctorate or professional degree among Combined Statistical Areas nationwide (Raleigh-Durham-Cary) - Triangle Business Journal and U.S. Third-highest percentage (40%) of adults with at least a bachelor's degree among Combined Statistical Areas nationwide (Raleigh-Durham-Cary) - Triangle Business Journal and U.S. In addition to academic pursuits, Raleigh offers cultural amenities including Broadway plays, professional symphony, opera, and ballet companies, and outstanding art, history, and science museums.
AIU offers an affordable, nontraditional, online university for adult and continuing education via distance learning allowing professional adults to finish college, earn a degree, and advance their careers. Atlantic International University offers distance learning degree programs uniquely focused on each individual. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp.
The story of how this important physical property was discovered, how its role in the geological past was evaluated and how we came to understand that its increased concentration, via fossil fuel burning, would adversely affect our future, covers about two centuries of enquiry, discovery, innovation and problem-solving. Napoleon, defeated at the Battle of Waterloo just a few years previously, had just died, but somebody who had at one time undertaken significant engineering and academic projects for the late Emperor was now busily engaged on his investigations of the physical world, with a specific interest in the behaviour of heat. To Victorian natural historian and pioneer in Alpine climbing, John Tyndall (1820-1893), the evidence, controversial at the time but now mainstream, clearly indicated that at one time much of northern Europe had been covered by ice-sheets. But it planted the seed of an idea that was revisited towards the end of the 19th Century by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927). Atmospheric processes had key implications in military terms, so that it was deemed necessary to understand them as thoroughly as possible, and the properties and behaviour of infra-red radiation came under particular scrutiny, given that if missiles were somehow able to home in on hotspots such as jet exhausts they could seek and destroy such things. This made it possible to dissect each layer of Earth's atmosphere and work out how it might absorb infra-red radiation. Amongst the fallout from nuclear explosions was carbon 14, an unstable isotope of carbon that has six protons and eight neutrons in the nuclei of its atoms (the most abundant by far, forming 98.9% of all carbon on Earth, is carbon 12 with six protons and six neutrons).
However, follow-up research was commenced by Suess, working with Roger Revelle at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and by other specialists: all came to a similar conclusion independently of one another, which was that the ocean would typically have claimed any molecule of carbon dioxide emitted within about a decade. However, the Mauna Loa monitoring station was continued and it continued to find an increase.
This, he felt, could "hardly be called cataclysmic." It was also pointed out, by climatologist Hubert Lamb among others, that the uncertainties included a failure to explain previous temperature fluctuations, known from historical data, over the previous centuries. Through the 1970s and into the 1980s, more important developments occurred, these coincident from the mid-70s onwards with a resumption of warming.
The ice contains minute bubbles of prehistoric air trapped when it was formed, and once a reliable method had been developed by which to isolate and analyse that air (it is done in a vacuum), it was possible to get an idea of the composition of the atmosphere of the past, through ice-ages and interglacials. Even if warming episodes were initiated by orbital changes, the warming itself would cause the release of greenhouse gases from sources including the oceans and melting permafrost.
Once plate tectonics had been understood, it had become possible, using a whole raft of geological techniques, to retrace the wanderings of the continents back over hundreds of millions of years.
For a long time, astrophysicists had known that the Sun was a main sequence star that had gradually brightened by about 10% per billion years, so that it was considerably dimmer long ago. This was a campaign aimed primarily in response to the Kyoto Protocol on limiting emissions, signed in December 1997. The basic principles remain the same, but everywhere the details are being fine-tuned as better methods of data-collection are developed, various problems with proxies that are used to understand the temperatures of the geological past are ironed-out and monitoring is improved. This, IMHO, is a must read by anyone new to this field, or educators looking for a resource for classes. I find myself forgetting some of the historical details, and this is the perfect refresher (the picture graphs alone are good memory aids). You could as well speak Welsh :)But the evidence of "weathering lasting just ten thousand [years]" is very much interesting (if you translate it to non-professional English) and hopeful that the geo processes that we need desperately in XXI century can be sped up. Lots of friends and relatives do not have the time or intrest to read a full book on the subject like Weart's "The Discovery of Global Warming" so might I suggest that this article be converted into a PDF for referal.
During the parts of the cycles that increase that radiation on the northern hemisphere, the snow and ice melt a bit more, which reduces the amount of radiation being reflected to space, which increases the radiation being absorbed by the ground and water, warming them and in turn warming the atmosphere, which increases the warming of the oceans. At 920,000 square feet, Terminal 2 will be nearly three times larger that the former Terminal C, with two concourses featuring 36 gates. The American Dance Festival and the Bull Durham Blues Festival are other major cultural events in the Triangle.

However, what was far from clear was how the climate could change in such a drastic manner.
The tests began with slightly lower amounts of the gas than would be found in a complete section of the atmosphere from top to bottom - although to truly represent the atmosphere, a 250 cm tube, as opposed to the 30 cm one that was used, would have been closer to the mark. Not only that, total saturation in the lower atmosphere is not a problem for the Greenhouse Effect: if the upper layers of the atmosphere remain unsaturated, they will still prevent heat getting out into space. The resultant paper appeared in a the journal Physical Review, which tended not to be read by earth and atmospheric scientists and was as a consequence missed by many of them. Because carbon 14 is unstable, it undergoes radioactive decay, and through this radioactivity it can be tracked as it moves around in the atmosphere. However, Revelle, something of a specialist in sea-water chemistry, was aware that the various chemicals present in sea-water have buffering effects that work to keep sea-water at a slightly alkaline state. The only way to find out would be to start monitoring the levels of the gas by accurate measurement, so moves were made to do just that, starting with a network of 15 measuring-stations around Scandanavia. The measurements also picked-up a well-defined and regular fluctuating cycle corresponding to the growing seasons of plants in the northern hemisphere.
Convective updraughts, such as those that can lead to thunderstorm development, transport a lot of heat from Earth's surface up towards the upper troposphere: a warming surface enhances the process, so that more and more heat is carried up and finds its way to levels where it may be re-radiated out into Space. In addition, temperatures had declined a little since the 1940s yet carbon dioxide levels had increased.
The identification of other, sometimes more powerful, greenhouse gases such as methane, the contributions to atmospheric carbon dioxide from other human activities such as deforestation and cement manufacture, better understanding of the temperature-changing properties of atmospheric pollution such as sulphur emissions, aerosols and their importance in the post-1940s northern hemisphere cooling: the knowledge-base was increasing year by year. It was found that, during the frozen depths of the last ice-age, carbon dioxide levels were much lower, at less than two hundred parts per million.
These additional greenhouse gases would then act as powerful amplifiers to the initial warming. These paleogeographical reconstructions demonstrated that, at certain periods in the past, often lasting for tens of millions of years, the distribution of flora and fauna in the fossil record showed that warmth-loving species had enjoyed a much greater latitudinal range than they do at the present day. Geologists knew of some fairly widespread glaciations in the past: there was an ice-age at the end of the Ordovician period, some 445 million years back and, going further back again, there were some huge, perhaps planet-wide glaciations in the Proterozoic eon. Major sources, such as episodes of exceptional volcanic activity, covered near-continental sized areas with lavas and tuffs, thus leaving their calling-cards behind for geologists to examine. Sea level rise over the decades would again affect agriculture due to loss of fertile low-lying lands and would also lead to population displacement and mass-migration.
But Fourier, Tyndall and Arrhenius were definitely somewhere along the right track, all those years ago, when their pioneering work commenced into finding out what makes the Earth's climate tick. Up to 500ky is required for Urey reaction to fully respond to an impulse forcing such as anthopo CO2.CO2 dissolves in the oceans much quicker (on 100-1000y timescale) but that carbon still stays within AO system and may degass back into A.
As my SkS colleagues know I'm a geologist specialising in mineralogy, I've probably just volunteered myself to do this!You are right about the timescales involved with these major weathering cycles. Weart's book is great, but if I have limited time, I tend not to check it out unless it is a "need to know" for a reply I'm working on.
Raleigh is also home to the North Carolina State Fair, a ten-day celebration with carnival rides, livestock, live entertainment, and all the corn, fried dough, and barbecue you can eat. Since our students come from over 180 countries, their background, employment opportunities, and required skill sets vary greatly. Therefore, he reasoned, there must be something else apart from incoming solar radiation, some other factor that keeps the planet warmer.
Among the possibilities Tyndall considered was variations in the composition of the atmosphere, and via a series of experiments he made the discovery that water-vapour was an important heat-trapping agent. In addition, it was already known via the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, that warmer air can hold more water vapour: the amount is about 7% more per degree Celsius of warming.
Then, the amount of carbon dioxide was reduced by a third: they found what they regarded as very little change and came to the conclusion that the absorption bands of the light spectrum at which carbon dioxide absorbs were quickly saturated - clogged-up, so that their absorption would not increase.
In any case, it was generally thought that Earth's climate system maintained itself in some natural kind of balance.
Instead of broad absorption bands, the more precise modern equipment found groups of sharp lines, where absorption would occur, with gaps in between where the infra-red would get through unhindered. The tracking enabled scientists to establish that within a matter of years any long-lived gases added to the atmosphere are well-mixed throughout all layers, from pole to pole.
Revelle suggested that the buffering would place a strict limit on the amount of carbon dioxide the oceans could actually absorb.This was a critical step in the research.
There was a decrease in Spring and Summer and an increase in Autumn and Winter marking increased and decreased uptake of carbon dioxide respectively. It became understood that both plants and oceans had limits with respect to how much carbon dioxide they could take up over a fixed time. By the mid-1980s, the famous Vostock core had been drilled to a depth of 2km, representing 150,000 years of climate history, or a complete interglacial-glacial-interglacial cycle. The reverse could also occur with increased greenhouse gas drawdown facilitating a temperature decline back into an ice-age.
The planet as a whole must have enjoyed a much warmer climate, with the poles especially warm compared to recent times. The latter events left behind distinctive rock-sequences typically consisting of tillites (ancient boulder-clay, now solid rock) representing ice-deposited debris, overlain with a depositional break by cap-carbonates (chemical sediments of marine origin deposited during interglacials following global sea-level rises).
Major sinks, likewise: for example, as continents collided, mountain-ranges were formed, making phenomenal amounts of rock debris available to weathering-agents, of which carbon dioxide dissolved in rainwater is one of the most important. Mankind was, in essence, busily engaged with making areas of the planet's surface uninhabitable for future generations. That's certainly something to recall if you're discussing climate change with somebody and they try to tell you that climate science has only been around for a couple of decades!
The amount of CO2 that can be dissolved is limited (as oceans themselves are limitted), and Henry's law dictates that it won't be absorbed entirely. Herabouts (Mid Wales) there are remnants of deep tropical terrestrial weathering (most was removed by glacial erosion in the Quaternary). This article and the graphic timeline will make it so much easier to double-check myself (and certainly replaces my scribbed notes based on the info gleaned from Wearts book). Raleigh also boasts the Time Warner Cable Music Pavilion at Walnut Creek (Alltel Pavilion), renowned as one of the finest outdoor concert venues in the country, hosting concerts during the spring, summer, and fall and the newly opened Raleigh Amphitheatre and Festival Site next to the downtwon Raleigh Convention Center..
To ensure our student's studies are relevant to their careers and interests, AIU allows its students unique freedom in the curriculum design and course selection process. One suggestion he came up with was that the energy coming in from the sun in the form of visible and ultra-violet light (known back then as "luminous heat") was easily able to pass through Earth's atmosphere and heat up the planet's surface, but that the "non-luminous heat" (now known as infra-red radiation) then emitted by the Earth's surface could not make it back in the opposite direction quite so readily. He also found that carbon dioxide was very good at trapping heat, despite being a trace gas occurring in the hundreds of parts per million (ppm) range. This was - and still is - because water vapor in the upper troposphere occurs in concentrations several orders of magnitude less than in the lower troposphere where most of our weather occurs. In retrospect, given the dramatic climate changes that had led to the ice ages, this was a curious stance to take.Seven years later, English engineer Guy Callendar, something of an outsider (a steam-engine specialist but with a very keen interest in meteorology), revived the idea, having discovered evidence of a warming temperature trend in the early twentieth century from compilations of temperature records. Carbon dioxide and water-vapour had their own sets of absorption-lines that did not exactly coincide and it was reaffirmed that water vapour was relatively unimportant in the dryer upper levels of the atmosphere.
Plass wrote that if at the end of the 20th Century the average temperature had continued to rise, it would be "firmly established" that carbon dioxide could cause climate change. But carbon 14 also forms high in the upper atmosphere, where cosmic ray bombardment occurs. Revelle calculated that, at the emissions-rates of the time (assuming, like most of his predecessors, that these would likely remain constant), an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels of around 40% was possible over the coming centuries. However, in California, researcher Charles David Keeling improved the techniques, to the point where he felt that it might be possible to isolate and remove spurious sources of noise.
In the meantime, a steadily increasing understanding of other aspects of the complex carbon-cycle was ongoing.
This important additional control addressed a long-standing problem that few workers, with the notable exception of Hulburt, had examined in depth.

Ichtiaque Rasool and Stephen Schneider of NASA, for example, modelled the effects of pollution in the form of aerosols and sulphur emissions in the atmosphere and discovered that a significant increase of such pollution could - possibly - lead to a cooling episode. But given that carbon dioxide levels were now substantially higher than anything in the past two millions of years, in either glacials or interglacials, it had become abundantly clear that the greenhouse effect was something we needed to take extremely seriously: even if the precise future increase in temperature was still an unknown quantity, with a fairly wide error-range, models indicated that for a doubling of carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels, a rise of three degrees celsius as a global average was the most likely outcome. Now that the carbon dioxide-temperature relationship was becoming well-understood, attention was turned to these 'hothouse' periods of the past, and evidence began to accumulate that carbon dioxide levels had indeed been much higher at these times.
But generally, despite this fainter sun, the climate had, outside of these chilly glitches, been warm, warmer than it ought to have been.
These occasional disturbances resulted in warmer and cooler climatic episodes respectively. The AOCM models quantify that in a case of a proposed C cycle disturbance of ~1000GT, some 10-15% of that C must stay as CO2 and wait for rock weathering (100-500ky) to be removed out of the system.
Around the old lead-mines of the area, highly evolved secondary lead mineral assemblages occur in considerable amounts in association with remnants of this weathering (it leaves normally slate-grey metasediments bulk-leached to pinkish and buff shades). The Koka Booth Ampitheatre in Cary is a wonderful place for a date to watch an outdoor movie or concert. Hundreds of parts per million may not sound like a lot, but some compounds have important properties at such concentrations: for example, 500ppm of hydrogen sulphide in air may lead to asphyxia, as any health and safety fact-sheet on the gas will tell you.
As luck would have it, however, nobody took a lot of notice of that and, in effect, the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect hypothesis went to sleep for over two decades. Now, it was certainly realised that the properties of each layer needed to be taken into account too.
This is a constant process compared to the one-offs that represent each nuclear explosion, a factor that allowed another test to be made.Carbon 14 has a short half-life, which is why radiocarbon dating is only used for getting ages for relatively recent things and not ancient stuff like rocks that are millions of years old, amongst which can be counted the fossil fuels. However, as an aside he did note that if emission-rates kept on increasing, the outcome would be different with significant warming in the decades ahead. The aim in general was to work out how much of the carbon dioxide resulting from the burning of fossil fuels was ending up in the oceans, vegetation, soils, weathered minerals and so on. Such findings even led to a small minority of scientists and a larger number of commentators musing over whether the current interglacial was coming to an end. Writing in a 1981 paper in the journal Nature, climatologists Tom Wigley and Phil Jones said: "The effects of CO2 may not be detectable until around the turn of the century. It was as if these non-condensing greenhouse-gases were acting as the planet's thermostat.Reconstructions of past Hothouse climates had shown that temperatures had been around six degrees higher on average, and higher still in polar regions, with no polar ice-caps and a temperate to subtropical fauna and flora, as evidenced by the fossil record in these areas. Post Quaternary secondary lead mineral assemblages occur in a slate-grey metasediment matrix in areas where the bulk-weathered material is now absent: the mineralisation is typically found in small amounts of non-equilibrium assemblages - perhaps just what might be expected for a weathering lasting just ten thousand, as opposed to tens of millions, of years.
That was about as far as he got with the idea back then, as the detailed measurements required to explore this hypothesis were not available, given the technology of the day. He turned to colleague Arvid Hogbom (1857-1940), who had been investigating natural carbon dioxide cycles, to see if it could. Plus, there were still the old doubts with respect to the original work of Arrhenius: surely the vastness of the oceans would manage to absorb most of that extra gas. Hulburt and Callendar - and indeed Arrhenius - had after all been on the right track, even if aspects of their conclusions were incorrect. The lack of attention to water-vapour and cloudiness led to criticisms of crudeness, and again the matter of the ocean absorbing the extra gas was raised in objection to Plass' suggestion that the extra carbon dioxide would remain in the atmosphere for a thousand years. In coal and oil, all the carbon 14 has long since decayed away, so that burning them would only release non-radioactive carbon 12 and the much rarer but stable carbon 13.
Importantly, he pointed out that human beings were now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past or be reproduced in the future - an allusion, perhaps, to the growing realisation of the finite, one-off nature of the fossil fuels, being as they are a non-renewable resource over human timescales.The significance of the limited ability of the oceans to absorb carbon dioxide caught on after a while and was elaborated upon by Swedish meteorologists Bert Bolin and Erik Eriksson, who explained what happens.
Locations far from noisy, local manmade and natural carbon dioxide sources were chosen, in places such as Antarctica and atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii. Importantly, this multidisciplinary work at last brought together the various branches of science that had previously been working in relative isolation: atmospheric scientists, biologists, geochemists, computer specialists and so on. But there was a very important difference between then and now: the rate of fluctuations in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in the past appeared in many cases to have been at a snail's pace compared to recent increases - and today's levels continue to go up exponentially - faster and faster and faster.
Other nearby attractions include the Morehead Planetarium and Science Center in Chapel Hill and Durham Performing Arts Center. Hogbom had, at the time, started to consider carbon dioxide emissions from factories (simple enough if you know, for example, how many tons of coal each factory burns a year). Callendar suggested that the top layer of the ocean, that interacts with the atmosphere, would easily become saturated with carbon dioxide and that would affect its ability to absorb more, because, he thought, the rate of mixing of shallow and deep oceanic waters was likely to be very slow. Burning fossil fuels on a massive scale would therefore add more carbon 12 and 13 to the air relative to carbon 14, regardless of nuclear tests. Basically, although the gas is indeed easily absorbed by sea-water, it is the timescales that matter: mixing of shallow and deep oceanic waters takes place over hundreds to thousands of years but sea-water can de-gas parts of its carbon dioxide payload over much, much shorter periods. It should be mentioned here that, at the latter site, the prevailing wind is off the ocean and the fissures that emit gases are almost always downwind: if the wind changes the sudden upticks due to volcanogenic carbon dioxide are so blindingly obvious that they can easily be removed. The media loved that one: despite being a minority view, it was nice and dramatic, thereby making news headlines.
Furthermore, very rapid (over a few tens of thousands of years) environmental changes in the geological past were often accompanied by mass-extinctions due to conditions changing faster than ecosystems could adapt to them.
In fact, the rock weathering has been used as explanation of temp changes in Cenozoic (64my). He had been surprised to find that man-made emission rates were very similar to those occurring in nature. And there was still that old problem of water vapour and carbon dioxide radiation absorption bands overlapping, decreasing the greenhouse properties of the latter gas. Like their predecessors, Bolin and Eriksson ran the calculations regarding possible temperature changes for a doubling of carbon dioxide, but this time assuming emissions would increase and increase yet more on an ever-steepening upward path.
Anyway, the idea was to establish a baseline concentration and then see what the levels would be in subsequent years. It was amid such realisations of how badly things could go wrong that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was founded, in 1988. Back in the 1890s, that of course represented a tiny fraction of the fossil fuels that we burn today; but what, they asked themselves, might happen if mankind burnt ever-increasing amounts over many centuries? He found that the younger the wood, the more carbon 12 and 13 there was relative to carbon 14.
By 1958, Keeling was confident that he had the baseline reliably nailed and two years later he reported that levels were rising, at a rate that might be expected if the oceans were not taking in most of the emissions as detailed above. When India finally smashed against Tibet giving rise to Himalayas - triggering increased rock weathering - more CO2 absorbed in climate cooled down to today's glacial cycles. Side-tracking from the ice-age research, Arrhenius ran calculations to see what a doubling of carbon dioxide levels might do to temperatures. Again, the prospect of warming causing more cloudiness was raised - something that there were no methods available at the time with which to estimate in terms of amount. This was far more drastic than anything previously had suggested and Bolin warned that a radical change in climate might occur, a statement echoed by Russian climatologist Mikhael Budyko in 1962. This is very interesting science, although it must be admitted is based on far less certain prerequisites (i.e. All perfectly reasonable objections, simply because there were insufficient data available at the time to clarify matters further. By the time the hypothesis appeared in a popular book that was published in 1908, the burning-rate had already gone up significantly, so in accordance with that change they revised the doubling-time down to a few centuries, but it was still something of a scientific curiosity, the stuff of after-dinner conversations.

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