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The Bank of Italy may be forced to revise down its growth forecasts in its quarterly economic bulletin today as austerity measures implemented by Prime Minister Mario Monti contribute to curtailing consumer spending and prompt manufacturers, including Italy’s largest - Fiat - to curb investment.
Foreign trade is helping prevent a deeper contraction, adding almost 1 percentage point to growth in the first quarter as imports fell faster than exports.
While the Bank of Italy revealed yesterday total government debt fell in August for a second month to 1.976 trillion euros, the debt-to-GDP ratio may decline at a slower pace than forecast as a result of weaker growth.
The Bank of England may expand its 375 billion-pound quantitative easing program by 25 billion pounds in November, rather than the 50 billion pounds some economists have forecast, because of concern among some policy makers about the effectiveness of the stimulus.
Dale and Broadbent voted against an expansion in July, saying bank-credit measures may offset the need for more QE. Still, current Governor Mervyn King has demonstrated his support for QE and the November inflation report is likely to show inflation undershooting the 2 percent target next year. The policy rate, unchanged at 0.5 percent for 43 months - the longest period since 1951 - is likely to remain on hold for an extended period. A double-dip recession soon brought unanimity to the rate path and policy makers may be reluctant to consider an increase any time soon. Durable Goods Orders: The topline estimate of durable goods orders will probably be bolstered by the 143 orders for civilian aircraft during September. This is not an inch forward, this is not a millimeter forward; this is quicksand where they are all stuck as both money and time run out as the Socialists scream for alms while the landed gentry, utilizing head fakes and other polite deceptions, refuse to provide it. The point when the ECB will effectively become the bloc's banking supervisor is important because it would open the way for the euro zone's bailout fund to inject capital directly into troubled banks, without adding to their sovereign governments' debts. So, it seems, the hope for moar-money from central-bankers remains squarely on the shoulders of the PBoC. Until September, the Fed relied on the tool of the balance sheet to directly reduce longer-term rates by purchasing assets with longer duration in mostly the five to 10-year maturity bucket, with occasional purchases further out along the curve.
In September, citing the persistence of excessive economic slack, the Fed announced it would add $85 billion each month to its balance sheet until the end of the year and then continue purchasing $40 billion of agency bonds until the unemployment rate moved down to an unspecified level. In a recent speech, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans expressed his support for a contingent policy that would commit the Fed “to providing accommodation at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 7 percent (and the outlook for inflation over the medium term is under 3 percent). Evans calls for continued monetary stimulus at least until the unemployment rate hits 7 percent.

We have moved into the outer limits of Monetary Policy which now forces the accelerated currency debasement of the developed economies against its Asian & BRIC competitors.
Between issue publication receive updates on Technical Analysis, Economic Analysis and anything note worthy for your trading and investing. That may prove a false dawn if European leaders fail to reach agreement on a banking union, if Spain continues to delay applying for a bailout and if the next loan tranche of 31.5 billion euros for Greece is held back.
That may prevent the government bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio starting in 2014, as previously forecast. Sales of luxury cars in Italy may drop 47 percent to 593 vehicles this year from 1,116 in 2008 after the introduction of a luxury tax, IHS Automotive forecasts.
It may have also been partly responsible for a 47 percent gain in the FTSE 100 stock index in the first round of asset purchases. Investor expectations for a rate increase mounted within six months of the end of QE1, after former policy maker Andrew Sentance voted for a rise, followed by two other members a year after the end of the first round. The new ESM fund will not pick up the check and it is up to each country to pay for their own past problems.
Merkel earlier demanded broader authority for the executive European Commission to veto national budgets that breach EU rules. This consideration will determine whether the government is able to tolerate a hard landing, especially given that policy room for maneuver is still large and the state is well endowed.
A 7.6 percent pace in the second quarter still exceeds the target growth rate of 7 percent.
Of course, we all know the end result of this failed attempt at investment utopia as portfolio insurance was a primary cause of the 1987 stock market crash for both psychological and practical reasons. Communications – using the signaling channel to shape expectations over the path of rate policy.
Composition – the use of the balance sheet tool to influence long-term rates, and variation in employment, inflation and output absent any change in the overnight rate target. That is, the costs of an inflation rate above our 2 percent goal are the same as the costs of an equalsized miss in inflation below 2 percent.
The 'race to the bottom' has entered another phase which now sets the battle lines for the next set of conflicts.

Portuguese 10-year yields dropped below 8 percent this week for the first time since March 2011 while Irish nine-year interest rates have slipped below 5 percent for the first time since August 2010. Credit default swaps for Spain have fallen 271 basis points in the last eight weeks to 370 basis points. Spain maintains its investment grade status with the three major rating agencies though that rating is the same as that for Azerbaijan, Colombia, and Namibia. A 25 billionpound program would reduce the pace of asset purchases to 2.5 billion pounds a week while 50 billion pounds would increase the weekly rate to 5 billion pounds, making the former more likely. The $50 billion increase equates to about $28 billion in fresh reserve accumulation after the data is adjusted for valuation effects, according to Bloomberg Brief estimates. The use of forward guidance to shape expectations of rate policy is key, especially once short-term rates run up against the constraint of the zero boundary. It is likely the next communication shift will be a move toward targeting a specific level of the unemployment rate.
Market participants would likely also take comfort in an explicit reminder from the Fed that it still considers 5.6 percent unemployment rate to be the full-employment target.
That means it costs $271,000 less annually to protect $10 million of Spanish debt for five years. The ECB will be willing to buy an unlimited amount of Spanish government bonds once Spain has applied for a credit line from the bailout fund. Hardly the driver for the next major round of stimulus that is so required to fill deleveraging shoes (leaving aside the question of food inflation concerns). Even with significant structural imbalances, we believe the party will be forced to push reforms to maintain sustainable growth.

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04.01.2015 | Author: admin

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